Controversy Erupt After Donald Trump Declare that He is Leading in Almost all of the Real polls
Former President Donald Trump declared that he is leading in “almost all of the REAL Polls” for the upcoming presidential election, despite contrary evidence from reputable polling sources.
According to a report by Newsweek on Monday, August 12, 2024, in a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump asserted that his 2024 campaign is his strongest yet and expressed confidence that he would defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in November.
Trump’s claim hinges on his interpretation of polling data, though many of the polling firms he cites have faced criticism for their reliability.
For instance, Rasmussen Reports recently indicated a 5-point lead for Trump over Harris. However, the influential polling aggregation site 538 removed Rasmussen from its list of reliable pollsters in March 2024 due to issues with its methodologies.
Conversely, more trusted polling organizations, including YouGov, Marquette Law School Poll, and Marist, consistently show Harris ahead of Trump in their surveys. As of August 11, 538’s average of national polls places Harris ahead of Trump by more than 2 points (45.7% to 43.4%).
In his post, Trump criticized the Democrats for changing their primary candidate from President Joe Biden to Harris, claiming that Harris, who failed to secure a single primary vote and was the first Democrat to withdraw from the race, is unfit for the presidency.
He boasted about his past successes, emphasizing that this campaign has garnered more enthusiasm and support than previous ones.
Trump also lamented what he views as obstacles created by “Fake News” and “low self-esteem leakers,” while vowing to “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” by overcoming what he perceives as radical leftist threats.
Polling data from various sources reveals a more complex picture. The Trafalgar Group, which 538 rates as having limited accuracy, has recently reported Trump leading Harris in critical swing states such as Arizona, Nevada,
North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. In contrast, a recent survey by The New York Times/Siena College—regarded by 538 as a highly accurate pollster—shows Harris leading Trump by 4 points in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
Another survey from CNBC/All-America Economic found Trump ahead of Harris by 2 points nationwide (48% to 46%). However, Marist, which is ranked as the sixth most accurate polling firm by 538, reported Harris with a 3-point advantage over Trump (51% to 48%).
Additionally, the Marquette Law School Poll, ranked third by 538, found Harris leading by 4 points among registered voters (52% to 48%) and 6 points among likely voters (53% to 47%). An Economist/YouGov poll, considered the fourth most accurate, also showed Harris with a 2-point lead (45% to 43%).
Trump’s campaign received scrutiny on the same day for promoting a conspiracy theory alleging that Harris’ recent rally in Detroit featured fake crowd images.
Trump claimed that Harris manipulated photos to falsely depict a large audience and was supposedly exposed by a maintenance worker at the airport.
There is no evidence supporting Trump’s allegations, and numerous photos and videos confirm the presence of a significant number of supporters.
In response to Trump’s claims, Harris’ campaign team posted on X (formerly Twitter) a rebuttal that included an actual photo of a 15,000-person crowd from the rally and a pointed remark about Trump’s lack of recent appearances in swing states.
