Poll Shows Who Black Voters Support as The Next President

Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a substantial lead over former President Donald Trump among Black voters, with an average advantage of 60 points according to a Newsweek analysis of recent national polling data.

This analysis, based on polls conducted by various pollsters since the beginning of August, shows that Harris is polling at an average of 76 percent among Black voters, while Trump is at 16 percent.

The data includes contributions from well-known pollsters such as YouGov/The Economist, RMG Research, Beacon Research, and ActiVote.

Despite this commanding lead, Harris’s support among Black voters varies slightly across different polls, with some showing her polling as low as 71 percent and others as high as 77 percent.

Trump’s support, meanwhile, ranges from 14 to 26 percent as posted by Newsweek on Thursday, August 22, 2024.

The Democratic Party has historically dominated the Black vote in presidential elections, consistently winning a large majority since 1936.

For example, Hillary Clinton secured 88 percent of the Black vote in 2016, and Joe Biden won 87 percent in 2020.

Before Harris became the Democratic nominee, Trump was showing signs of making inroads with Black voters.

A March 2024 GenForward poll suggested he could capture as much as 17 percent of the Black vote, potentially making him the most successful Republican candidate with Black voters since 1960.

However, since Harris took over as the Democratic candidate, she has managed to regain some of the ground lost by her predecessors, although her current support levels still fall short of previous Democratic candidates.

While Harris is currently outpacing Trump among Black voters, polling experts warn that these figures should be interpreted with caution.

Polling results can be less reliable when broken down by specific demographic subgroups like Black voters, who often represent a small portion of the overall sample.

This smaller sample size increases the margin of error. For instance, in the YouGov/The Economist poll, only 151 of the 1,368 registered voters surveyed identified as Black.

This limited sample can lead to less statistically reliable results, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about the broader Black electorate.

Despite Harris’s lead, the Trump campaign has made strategic efforts to appeal to Black voters, particularly Black men.

Trump has emphasized his economic record, including the historically low unemployment rates for Black Americans during his presidency.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Black unemployment reached a low of 5.3 percent in August 2019.

However, critics point out that the trend of declining Black unemployment began under President Barack Obama, who saw the rate drop from 16.8 percent in March 2010 to 7.5 percent by the end of his term.

Additionally, Black unemployment spiked to 16.9 percent in April 2020 during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic under Trump’s administration.

Trump has also sought to win over Black voters by engaging with prominent Black figures like Kanye West and by framing himself as a victim of discrimination—a narrative he believes resonates with Black Americans who have faced systemic discrimination.

However, his outreach has been met with skepticism, especially in light of controversial statements he has made about race and employment, such as his remarks during a June presidential debate where he suggested that immigrants were taking “Black jobs.”

Experts like Richard Johnson, a Senior Lecturer in U.S. Politics and Policy at Queen Mary University of London, and Thomas Gift, an Associate Professor of Political Science at University College London, believe that Trump’s efforts are unlikely to secure a record number of Black votes given Harris’s candidacy.

Both scholars agree that Harris presents a significant challenge for Trump in making substantial inroads with Black voters.