Trump Campaign In Shambles As Harris Makes Dramatic Poll Comeback In State Won By Trump In 2020

According to a report by Newsweek on Sunday, August 11, 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris has managed to pull even with former President Donald Trump in North Carolina, a state that Trump carried in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

A recent poll conducted by YouGov Blue on behalf of Carolina Forward reveals that Harris and Trump are currently deadlocked at 46 percent each among likely voters in the Tar Heel State.

The poll, which sampled 802 voters online from August 5 to 9, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

This development marks a significant shift in North Carolina’s political landscape, which has traditionally leaned Republican in recent presidential contests.

In 2016, Trump secured a victory in North Carolina against former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by a margin of 3.6 percentage points, and in 2020, he narrowly defeated President Joe Biden by a 1.3-point edge.

The state’s 16 electoral votes, increased from 15 following the 2020 Census, solidify its position as a crucial battleground in the upcoming election.

As Harris emerges as the presumptive Democratic nominee following Biden’s withdrawal on July 21, the race between Harris and Trump among decided voters is neck and neck.

However, the survey highlights that 4 percent of respondents remain undecided, with an additional 1 percent wavering between third-party options.

This undecided bloc of voters could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of what is shaping up to be a fiercely contested battle in the state in 2024.

While third-party candidates have a limited impact in North Carolina at present, with notable figures like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnering 2 percent support and others like Cornel West, Jill Stein, and Chase Oliver receiving minimal backing, the state has seen fluctuations in third-party influence over the years.

In the 2016 election, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson secured 2.74 percent of the vote in North Carolina, showcasing a different political landscape compared to the current scenario.

North Carolina’s political evolution has been marked by historical shifts, transitioning from solidly Democratic voting patterns between 1876 and 1964 to becoming a Republican stronghold from 1968 onwards.

This transformation was part of the broader “Southern Strategy” employed by the Republican Party to attract white conservative voters in the South who harbored reservations about the civil rights legislation of the mid-1960s.

The state saw a brief Democratic resurgence in 2008 when former President Barack Obama narrowly clinched victory with a margin of approximately 14,000 votes out of 4.3 million cast, in what was one of the closest races of the 2008 election.

However, North Carolina swiftly reverted to the GOP in 2012, with Mitt Romney triumphing over Obama by about 2 percent.

Noteworthy is the growing Democratic trend in urban areas, juxtaposed with entrenched Republican support in rural regions, underscoring the importance of suburban voters around major cities like Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham in shaping the outcome of the 2024 election in the state.

The latest poll showing Kamala Harris on equal footing with Donald Trump in North Carolina signifies a significant shift in the state’s political dynamics.

With a historical backdrop of changing loyalties and emerging trends, all eyes will be on the Tar Heel State as the 2024 election approaches, highlighting the crucial role it is poised to play in the national political landscape.