Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill Blows Up – In Committee!

Trumpty had to be feeling pretty good as he wrapped up his Magical Middle East Money Tour. He’s too stupid to realize he wasn’t being feted, but rather mockingly flattered and with the money being thrown at him no wonder! Alas, he had to come home and truly thought he’d browbeaten Congressional Republicans into submission.

He was looking forward to spending his weekend crowing about passage of his ‘Big, Beautiful (Budget) Bill’ and damn if House GOP infighting didn’t shoot it full of holes. It went down IN COMMITTEE and not by a single vote either. Multiple Republicans said no.

Trump and Speaker Johnson have themselves a problem. It’s been there all along and it’s not going away. I’m not talking about the problem they’ve got on the other side of Capitol Hill. Senate Republicans have looked on in amusement while making it clear things they were seeing from the House weren’t going to pass muster with them! 

The thing is, opposition to Trump’s demand for a single “everything” bill has various individuals and factions saying Hell No but for different, even competing reasons.  It’s not like this was ever going to be an easy lift in the House due to the GOP’s razor thin majority.

However those folks can read polls too. They can see  how badly so much of what’s in the bill polls even with their own voters. More importantly they can see that TRUMP’s polling numbers are swirling down his fake gold toilet.

Look, this whole thing is complicated as hell as budget stuff, especially reconciliation legislation always is.  LOTS of moving parts with competing priorities and agendas.  You can read this article from The Independent for a more detailed view. I’d rather stick to broad strokes and the big picture than write the kind of ‘in the weeks’ article I became infamous for.  What matters is this:

The defeat likely does not mean an end for the bill, but rather will require Republicans to regroup and rewrite it to cater to conservative concerns about work requirements to Medicaid, rolling back renewable energy tax credits passed under Joe Biden’s presidency and making deeper spending cuts.

The legislative defeat shows the differing factions that Republicans must navigate with their small majority of only 220, only two seats more than the 218 required to have a majority in the House of Representatives.

Trump’s last minute lobbying was too little, too late. The linked article and similar one don’t say so but I don’t think this budgetary boondoggle, this legislative version of a Rube Goldberg Machine ever had a chance of passage. Let’s start with the fact an awful lot of Republicans are worried about next year’s midterms.

This is one of those times I miss Murfster who wrote with great insight (with supporting data) about swing districts. Under the best of circumstances the GOP was going to have major trouble remaining in the majority.

With this? My guess is that if Murf still keeps up with things he’d without blinking an eye two dozen GOP seats are up for grabs and at least a dozen will flip. In fact, my guess is he could make a case that an GOPer who won by only single digits had better watch out. That some ugly surprises were in store for House Republicans.

Look, you’ve seen the Town Halls in deep red Districts for the relative few GOPer willing to face voters. They and everyone else know it’s not a bunch of “outsiders.” So there’s that. You also have the deficit hawks who rejected the bill because it doesn’t cut ENOUGH.

Then you have the ones who want more tax breaks for the rich. Not just extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts but adding new tax cuts for the wealthy.  That too doesn’t fly with the deficit hawks. Oh, they want to give tax cuts to the rich but not without paying for them.

Even THEY know there’s only so much Medicaid and other popular and vital programs that can be cut. And, don’t forget about fights over Pentagon/Defense spending. Some want it cut, while others want it increased?

See what I mean. It’s no wonder they aren’t attacking each other physically like we saw happen during the election of McCarthy as Speaker!  The ‘line’ after Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill went down like the Hindenburg is they will have to ‘confer and work some things out.’

Hope, or rather delusion springs eternal in the House GOP but again consider what they want to do. For starters SPEND, beginning with extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts, and ramping up spending for immigration enforcement 0and energy exploration.

Paying for it? Well, massive cuts to Medicaid and plenty of other programs as I’ve said. They intend to use the process of reconciliation, which would allow them to sidestep a filibuster in the Senate as long as it relates to the budget.  However as I’ve noted the Senate has its own ideas. The GOP has a bit more of a margin there, but it’s no sure thing.

This is a complicated story as I’ve said, with lots of moving parts including some political death traps for a lot of Republicans.  I know it’s boring stuff but I urge you to follow the news in the weeks ahead because the impact of what they do or don’t manage to do WILL affect you, and countless others.